Africa’s smartphone market displays slowing growth.

Africa’s smartphone market is expected to grow at a modest 2% in 2025, due to economic complexities. However, against this negative backdrop, Chinese smartphone vendors are showing strong growth.

This is according to Canalys’ latest research, which outlines the mixed fortunes of the continent’s smartphone market. Factors affecting the depressed outlook across the different African markets include persistently high inflation, currency depreciation risks, limited economic momentum, and policy shifts.

The research and analysis company also gave an outlook and analysis for key markets.

Canalys says Nigeria's smartphone market declined 1% in Q4 2024, maintaining a 14% regional share, as rising living costs offset festive season gains. The research suggests 2025 may bring further strain, with telecom operators permitted to increase tariff hikes by up to 50%, likely to slow demand as consumers grapple with higher data costs.

Kenya experienced a 4% decline in Q4 2024, as new regulations introduced in November mandate tax compliance verification before devices can connect to local networks increased operational requirements for vendors and slowed short-term shipments.

South Africa experienced a mild 1% drop in Q4 2024, as improving economic conditions, lower interest rates and stronger consumer confidence supported the market's recovery from a double-digit drop in the previous quarter.

Egypt maintained its growth momentum for the fourth consecutive quarter, recording 12% growth, driven by fiscal stability. However, in January 2025, the country imposed an import tax of up to 38.5% on imported mobile phones to boost local production and regulate imports, reinforcing the need for strong local manufacturing.

Elsewhere, Canalys noted that Algeria continued to benefit from post-2020 economic reforms, with the smartphone market growing 11% in Q4 2024. In contrast, Morocco's smartphone market fell 34% in Q4, as vendors struggled to cope with higher customs duties introduced in early 2024, which increased prices, reduced consumer spending and led to delayed upgrades.

“The 49% year-on-year growth in the sub-$100 price band in Q4 2024 highlights the growing financial strain on consumers. Transsion, while maintaining its leadership with a 49% market share, saw a modest 1% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024 while facing the challenge of intensifying competition,” said Manish Pravinkumar, senior analyst at Canalys.

Transsion’s addition of new product categories in Africa, including home appliances, has not yielded significant results to the company’s overall revenue.

Meanwhile, other Chinese smartphone vendors experienced solid growth. Xiaomi surged 22%, due to aggressive market expansion in West African countries, including Cameroon and Ghana, and year-end consumer engagement campaigns.

Realme achieved an impressive 70% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024, driven by market expansion in North and East Africa and the growth momentum of the new Note series in 2024.

Elsewhere, OPPO increased its investment in local production in Egypt and Turkey throughout 2024, demonstrating its commitment to long-term growth in the African market.

Conversely, Samsung witnessed its shipments drop by 17%, but its average sales price rose 9% to $240, the highest among Android brands, says Pravinkumar.

“The vendor is focused on strengthening its mid-premium segment ($200 to $600) by targeting urban, middle-class African consumers seeking status-symbol smartphones,” he said.