Mastercard believes high remittance inflows, digital transformation and active female workforce participation will be key to Kenya’s economic growth.

Kenya’s GDP in 2025 is projected to grow by 4.7% year on year, outpacing the global average, which is forecast at 3.2.% – a modest increase on 3.1% in 2024. This is according to the Mastercard Economics Institute’s 2025 Economic Outlook for Kenya, released last week.

According to the report, consumer spending in the country is predicted to rise by 4%, while consumer price inflation is likely to stabilise at 4.8%, offering much-needed relief to households and businesses.

“Kenya’s economic outlook for 2025 highlights its potential for robust growth, underpinned by high remittance inflows, active female workforce participation, and digital transformation. These trends position the country as a leader in fostering inclusive and sustainable development,” said Khatija Haque, chief economist, EEMEA, Mastercard.

Mastercard also notes that there has, in recent years, been significant movement in people and, by extension, capital. Migration, while resulting in a loss of human capital, also generates remittance growth, which serve as a lifeline for low- and middle-income communities in developing economies.

According to the World Bank, global remittances surged from $128 billion in 2000 to $857 billion in 2023, with an estimated growth of 3% in 2024 and 2025. Economic recovery and local reforms are expected to sustain remittance growth through 2025, while the continued digitisation of the payments industry allows recipients to shift to digital and mobile channels, resulting in considerable cost efficiencies, security and convenience.

In Kenya, migration continues to shape the country’s economic landscape, significantly contributing to remittance inflows. In 2023, remittances accounted for 3.9% of GDP, up from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3%, underscoring their critical role in supporting household incomes and economic resilience.

Kenya’s advanced mobile money infrastructure, led by M-PESA, has further enhanced the efficiency and accessibility of remittances. Such platforms facilitate secure and convenient cross-border transactions, reducing costs and empowering underserved communities.

“Kenya’s digital evolution is accelerating at a fast pace,” said Shehryar Ali, senior vice president and country manager for East Africa and Indian Ocean Islands, Mastercard.

“As the ‘Silicon Savannah,’ Kenya leads in innovation, and we’re enhancing acceptance with tokenisation, wearables, and contactless payments. These solutions, along with our first multi-currency prepaid card, streamline payments and empower communities to engage confidently in global commerce.”