Why Africa’s MVNO moment is finally here, and what comes next

Jason Harmsen, Managing Director at Huge NXTGN.

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For years, the idea of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) taking off in Africa felt a bit like waiting for broadband speeds on a 2G connection: full of promise but frustratingly slow. But suddenly, things are clicking into place.

Across the continent, MVNOs are shifting from fringe experiments to serious players. Subscriber numbers tell the story: from 7 million in 2022 to over 10.6 million by the end of 2023, and we’re likely headed to 19 million by 2028. 

In South Africa alone, active MVNO SIMs grew 51% in just a year, reaching 4.3 million and raising R4.3 billion in market value. It is not bad for a model that many once dismissed as “not viable for Africa.”

But here’s the thing, this isn’t just a numbers game. It’s a story about timing, infrastructure, consumer behaviour, and a quiet but powerful convergence between telecom, retail, and finance.

Let’s start with what we know best. South Africa’s MVNO ecosystem is hands down the most mature on the continent. We’ve got over 20 MVNOs in South Africa, and they’re not just telco clones, they’re tailored, targeted, and often thriving.

Banks like FNB, Capitec, and Standard Bank have launched mobile offerings as natural extensions of their customer ecosystems, while others like Nedbank are close in pursuit. From Pick n Pay to Mr Price, retailers hand out SIM cards alongside groceries and denim jackets. 

Even insurance brands have joined the fray. And it’s working, because MVNOs don’t need to be everything to everyone. They need to serve their niche better than the big guys.

A big reason it’s all coming together now. South Africa’s wholesale environment has matured. Cell C paved the early road, but now MTN is playing ball, and others are loosening their grip. 

The competition between host networks has quietly tipped the scales in favour of choice, flexibility, and lower cost for MVNOs and consumers.

Then there’s Kenya, where Equitel, the MVNO offshoot of Equity Bank, proves that telecom and finance make great bedfellows. With 1.5 million subscribers and a full-blown 5G rollout via Airtel’s network, Equitel is a masterclass in convergence, potentially targeting six other countries. 

Customers can move money, make calls, and access services through a single, intuitive channel. It’s not flashy, but it’s deeply functional.

Nigeria, meanwhile, is the sleeping giant. In 2023, the NCC issued licenses to 43 MVNOs under a new tiered regime. That’s a big move in a market of 200+ million people. 

Rollout’s been slower than hoped, which is no surprise given the integration challenges, but early pioneers like Vitel Wireless and EMOSIM are breaking through. And with use cases spanning travel, diaspora connectivity, and mobile money, Nigeria might become the most exciting MVNO lab on the continent.

A few years ago, none of this would’ve stuck. Too much friction. Too little infrastructure. No regulatory scaffolding. But fast forward to today, and four clear forces are reshaping the playing field:

1. Regulation got smart. From Senegal to Nigeria, we’re seeing real frameworks that support MVNO growth. Formal licensing structures, tiered entry options, and even spectrum provisions signal to investors and entrepreneurs that MVNOs aren’t just tolerated; they’re wanted.
2. Consumers changed. Africa’s population is young, mobile-first, and expects flexibility. That R99 data bundle better come with zero-rated TikTok, or it’s a pass. MVNOs can deliver that kind of agility. And with only 44% mobile penetration across sub-Saharan Africa, there’s still a wide-open lane for first-time users, especially if you can offer vernacular content, bundled services, or rewards that feel culturally relevant.
3. Infrastructure caught up. 5G is rolling out in key markets. eSIM adoption is rising, slashing distribution barriers. Smartphone use is climbing fast, from 540 million devices today to a projected 880 million by 2030. All this gives MVNOs room to breathe, innovate, and scale.
4. Retail and fintech are all in. This may be the biggest wildcard. Grocery chains, banks, and even media brands have the trust, distribution, and data to build mobile offerings that actually stick. It’s no longer about competing on price alone. It’s about embedding telecom into everyday life.

This movement is just getting started. Analysts forecast a 6.7% compound annual growth rate through 2028. If we follow markets like Mexico, where MVNOs now outnumber some MNOs in subscriber base, we could soon see African countries where 1 in 5 mobile users is with a virtual operator. 

For South Africa, achieving 30% to 40% market adoption is possible in the next few years, especially as propositions get more targeted and the acronym and understanding thereof become more prevalent.

But the winners won’t be those who simply white-label a data plan and hope for the best. The real edge will be MVNOs that create distinct value, bundled content, IoT services, embedded fintech, and hyperlocal loyalty programmes. The kind of stuff a traditional MNO can’t deliver at scale.

Yes, not all will survive. Some will flame out fast. But the experimentation is part of the point. The more we learn what works and what flops, the more resilient and inventive this sector will become.

Absolutely. But what comes next is the part I’m most excited about. Because we’re not just talking about new SIM cards in new markets. We’re talking about a shift in who gets to participate in Africa’s digital economy, and how creatively they do it.

That’s worth showing up for.