Every transformative technology needs a tipping point. What was once niche starts becoming normal. Investment accelerates, consumer behavior shifts, and the supporting infrastructure has to catch up.
For electric vehicles (EVs), international experience suggests that point arrives at around 5% of new vehicle sales.
BloombergNEF’s analysis of EV adoption across international markets has identified the 5% threshold for battery electric vehicles as an important inflection point.
Markets tend to follow a hockey stick curve, slow initial uptake while consumers contend with higher prices, limited choice, unfamiliar technology and insufficient charging infrastructure, followed by much faster adoption once those barriers begin to fall.
China provides a striking example of how quickly momentum can build once a market passes its tipping point. According to China Daily, new energy vehicles now account for more than 60% of passenger-car sales, with penetration reaching 62.8% in June 2026 after remaining above 60% for three consecutive months.
The latest Naamsa numbers suggest we are approaching that transition faster than many might have expected. In June 2026, South Africans bought 3,045 new energy vehicles, more than double the 1,491 sold during the corresponding period in 2025.
For the year to date, 13,193 NEVs had been sold, comprising 6,667 hybrid electric vehicles, 4,623 plug-in hybrids and 1,903 battery electric vehicles. Electrified vehicles now account for approximately 6% of new light vehicle sales.
Although South Africa has not yet reached 5% pure battery-electric penetration, our combined 6% figure (including hybrids and plug-in hybrids) is a significant milestone.
The direction of travel is becoming increasingly clear. Hybrids introduce consumers to electrified drivetrains. Plug-in hybrids introduce them to charging. Battery electric vehicles remove liquid fuel from the equation altogether.
Perhaps more importantly, many of the obstacles that historically slowed adoption are beginning to weaken at the same time. Vehicle choice is expanding. Prices are falling. Commercial operators are starting to electrify fleets.
And the economics of petrol and diesel vehicles remain exposed to global commodity markets, exchange rates and geopolitical events largely beyond South Africa’s control.
Globally, the transition is already considerably further advanced. BloombergNEF expects more than 23 million passenger EVs to be sold worldwide in 2026, representing approximately 27% of global passenger vehicle sales. Five years ago that figure was around 9%.
South Africa will not follow precisely the same trajectory as China, Europe or any other market. Our electricity system, geography, vehicle market and household economics are different. But there is little reason to assume we will somehow remain permanently outside a technological transition already reshaping the global automotive industry.
The more important question is whether our infrastructure will be ready when adoption accelerates. There is a natural tendency to think about charging infrastructure as something that should be built once there are enough electric vehicles to justify it.
The problem is that this reverses the relationship between infrastructure and adoption. Consumers will not confidently buy electric vehicles for long-distance travel if they cannot reliably travel between South Africa’s major cities.
Fleet operators will not electrify vehicles operating national routes if charging is uncertain. And vehicle manufacturers will find it more difficult to justify bringing greater volumes and more affordable models into a market where their customers cannot easily use them beyond metropolitan areas.
Infrastructure is therefore not simply a response to EV adoption. It is one of the conditions that enables it.
This is why CHARGE has focused on developing a national network of renewable-energy-powered Charging Hubs, including along the N3 between Johannesburg and Durban. Each N3 Charging Hub currently provides six DC charging bays supported by 360 kW of total charging capacity, 280 kWp of solar generation and 645 kWh of battery storage.
Critically, these are not conventional roadside chargers connected to an already constrained electricity system.
Rather, they are off-grid energy assets designed to generate, store and dispense renewable energy for transport at the point where motorists and commercial fleets need it. And we are beginning to see what happens when that infrastructure becomes operational. During July, our N3 network dispensed more than 10 MWh of electricity.
Every kilowatt-hour dispensed is evidence of actual vehicles arriving, charging and continuing their journeys.
Although the numbers remain small compared with the enormous volumes of petrol and diesel consumed on South African roads every day, that is precisely what an adoption curve looks like near its beginning. International experience shows that the period before mass adoption can feel deceptively slow.
A few electric vehicles become a few thousand, charging demand remains manageable, and it becomes tempting to assume infrastructure can simply be added as vehicles arrive. Then the curve changes. Building a national charging network involves acquiring land, securing approvals and installing energy infrastructure.
It cannot happen overnight. The mistake is to wait for the steep part of the adoption curve before building for it.
South Africa has an opportunity to do more than electrify transport. It has an opportunity to rethink how transport energy is produced. Simply adding new charging demand to an already constrained grid is not the only option.
Off-grid Charging Hubs combine solar generation, battery storage and ultra-fast charging in a single location, producing energy where it is needed rather than transporting it across the country through an aging electricity network.
That fundamentally changes the transport energy equation. Instead of importing crude oil, refining it and shipping fuel across the country, we can increasingly generate transport energy alongside the roads where it is consumed.
Every kilowatt-hour produced locally reduces exposure to global oil markets, keeps more value in the South African economy and strengthens our long-term energy resilience.
The 5% threshold is widely recognised as the point where EV adoption begins to accelerate. If South Africa is approaching that tipping point, the real question is no longer whether the transition is coming, but whether we will be ready for it.
*Roux is co-founder and chair of CHARGE.
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