Analysts, lawmakers and civil society groups in Kenya are raising fresh concerns over the government’s planned sale of a 15 percent stake in Safaricom PLC to South Africa’s Vodacom Group.
According to the Business Daily, the groups warned in ongoing submissions to Kenya MPs this week that the deal could undervalue the country’s most profitable company while weakening State influence over a strategic digital asset.
The National Treasury agreed to sell the shareholding in December 2025 for about $1.6 billion (Sh204.3 billion) at Sh34 per share, boosting Vodacom's ownership to 55 percent and reducing the State's holding to 20 percent.
While the government has framed the sale as a way to unlock capital for infrastructure without raising taxes or debt, critics argue the valuation and control implications deserve deeper scrutiny.
The Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Kenya (ICPAK) told a joint parliamentary committee this week that the pricing relies too heavily on a market premium rather than Safaricom’s underlying value and future growth, particularly in mobile money and regional expansion.
“There is a need to link the proposed premium to Safaricom’s expected future earnings, sector outlook, and relevant macroeconomic trends, rather than relying solely on historical trading metrics,” said ICPAK chairperson Professor Elizabeth Kalunda.
ICPAK warned that basing the price largely on a 33.9 percent premium over recent trading levels reflects past market conditions and liquidity, not intrinsic value.
“Independent benchmarking or third-party validation is minimal. The proposed price of Sh34 per share has not been accompanied by a clear explanation of the valuation methodology, raising concerns over price discovery and accountability,” Kalunda added.
Beyond valuation, civil society fears are mounting over control and data sovereignty.
If approved, Vodacom would gain effective control of Safaricom, which runs M-PESA, Kenya’s dominant fintech platform and the backbone of millions of daily transactions.
Technology policy analysts caution that majority foreign ownership could narrow the State’s influence over strategic decisions, board composition and data governance.
Despite assurances that Safaricom’s headquarters will remain in Nairobi and that the CEO must be Kenyan, critics argued in exchanges with Parliamentarians that a 55 percent shareholder holds decisive power.
Civil society groups have further questioned whether the government’s retained “golden share” would be sufficient to safeguard national interests.
Regulators, however, have struck a more reassuring tone.
The Communications Authority of Kenya (CA), Capital Markets Authority and Competition Authority told lawmakers they view the price as competitive and do not expect market harm.
“The preliminary position of the Authority is that the request for the proposed change in shareholding can be accommodated,” said CA Director General David Mugonyi.
For now, the deal remains unconcluded, pending parliamentary approval and regulatory clearances in Kenya and other affected markets.
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