East Africa’s telecom landscape has edged closer toward a major shift after the COMESA Competition and Consumer Commission cleared Vodacom’s acquisition of the Kenyan government’s 15% Safaricom stake.
The ruling clears a critical regional hurdle, with the regulator concluding the transaction is “not likely to substantially prevent competition in the Common Market or a substantial part of it, nor will it be contrary to public interest.”
COMESA’s assessment found that while Safaricom commands between 60–70% of Kenya’s mobile SIM market, ahead of Airtel at 30–40% and Telkom Kenya at below 10%, the deal would not result in market share accretion that could tilt competitive dynamics.
In broadband, Safaricom holds an estimated 30–40% share, competing with Jamii Telecommunications, poa! Internet and Wananchi Group.
“The Panel determined that the merger would not lead to market share growth that could substantially reduce competition,” the Commission said in its report.
The transaction stems from the Kenyan government’s plan to sell roughly six billion Safaricom shares at KES34 each, raising about $$1.58 billion (KES204.3 billion).
Once completed, Vodacom’s stake would rise to 55%, up from 40%, giving it majority control while Safaricom remains listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
Vodacom Group CEO Shameel Joosub previously described the transaction as “a pivotal step in accelerating growth” and deepening digital and financial inclusion across Kenya and Ethiopia.
However, COMESA’s clearance is not the final green light.
The deal must still secure approvals from Kenya’s Competition Authority, the Capital Markets Authority, the Communications Authority of Kenya, and parliamentary consent, given the government’s stake sale.
Regulatory approvals in Ethiopia and South Africa may also be required, particularly as Safaricom operates in Ethiopia and Vodacom is headquartered in Johannesburg.
Additionally, shareholder approvals and compliance with listing requirements on the Nairobi Securities Exchange remain essential before completion.
The transaction offers Kenya fiscal breathing room without increasing debt, while, for Vodacom, it tightens control over one of Africa’s most profitable telecom and fintech platforms.
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