The rise of the digital empire: sovereign AI is redefining geopolitics
Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping global power dynamics, economic frameworks, and security considerations. While it offers immense opportunities, it also raises significant concerns about governance, ethical standards, and the potential for use in both civilian and military contexts.
AI is becoming a pivotal factor in global geopolitical competition, with leading nations recognising its potential to reshape power dynamics. In 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “Artificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia but of all of mankind.”
Five years later, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping also emphasised the importance of AI, stating, “We will focus on national strategic needs, gather strength to carry out indigenous and leading scientific and technological research, and resolutely win the battle in key core technologies.”
Then United States (U.S.) President Joe Biden echoed similar sentiments in 2023, saying, “We’re going to see more technological change in the next five to ten years — than we’ve seen in the last 50 years … artificial intelligence is accelerating that change.”
These statements underscore the intensifying race among nations to harness AI for strategic, economic, and military advantages.
The rapid evolution of AI brings significant implications, including the potential to redefine global supply chains and grant strategic leverage to countries with advanced AI capabilities.
AI is set to revolutionise warfare through autonomous systems, enhanced intelligence analysis, and sophisticated battlefield management, though it also raises concerns about escalation risks and the erosion of human oversight in critical decisions.
There are two prevailing narratives about AI’s influence. First, it’s seen as inevitable that AI will lead to global competition in technology, leadership, and economic power.
Second, some argue that AI disruption is so far-reaching that it might give machines control beyond human oversight. However, the critical questions remain: who benefits from these developments, and how do they shape technological and political realities as well as public opinion?
Amid these developments, major powers are not only competing in technology but also in setting norms, standards, and governance frameworks.
The European Union (EU), through initiatives like the AI Act, seeks to navigate this complex landscape by promoting a human-centric and responsible approach to AI, aiming to bolster European technological sovereignty and mitigate strategic dependencies.
The U.S. AI industry is growing rapidly but remains in its early stages with limited scope. While AI-related projects now make up a larger share of federal research and development (R&D) spending at universities, and AI startups have grown significantly — representing over 5% of all tech startups, up from less than 1% a decade ago — the field is still considered emergent.
Anupama Vijayakumar’s study on the potential impact of AI on the emerging world order examines how major powers, like the U.S., China, and Russia, are investing heavily in AI R&D to strengthen their geopolitical status.
Scholars argue that these nations are engaged in a global AI race to use this technology to increase both economic productivity and military strength, positioning themselves ahead of others.
For the U.S., already a global superpower, AI represents a tool to maintain or reinforce its dominant status. The technology can compensate for the perceived decline in U.S. global influence, especially after its costly involvement in Afghanistan and China’s growing economic power.
Meanwhile, according to Mark Craddock (2025), China views AI as a way to enhance its national strength and challenge U.S. supremacy, aiming to emerge as a global superpower in the coming decades.
Russia shares a similar perspective, hoping to use AI, alongside cyber tactics and space weaponry, to elevate its military and negotiate on more equal terms with the U.S., ultimately regaining some of the global influence it’s lost since the fall of the Soviet Union.
The global AI race, marked by competing technological capabilities, has the potential to significantly influence the global power structure.
Vijayakumar draws from historical trends to argue that while AI offers opportunities for national enhancement, advanced capabilities alone do not guarantee increased power.
These nations must align their institutions and policies to manage the challenges of technological disruption while taking advantage of AI’s potential.
The American and Chinese advantage
The same week President Trump announced his plans to invest up to $500bn on AI, a Chinese AI model called DeepSeek was unveiled that cost a fraction of what OpenAI spent developing ChatGPT.
The semi-open source DeepSeek is also far less computationally intensive, which prompted chipmaker Nvidia’s share price to fall 17%, shearing $600 billion off the company’s market capitalisation in the process, and marking the largest single-day loss Wall Street has ever seen.
Investors are beginning to question whether U.S. big tech companies’ expenditure on AI may be excessive and whether alternative means of achieving AI dominance exist and can be harnessed.
As the U.S. and China continue to dominate AI development and increase control over its necessary inputs, companies will face challenges from differing regulatory and commercial approaches between the two powers.
Governments will pressure traditional globalised business models by emphasising the need for geopolitical and ideological alignment when selling AI services.
Businesses in the AI supply chain, or those industries that AI advancements will heavily impact, must address several key strategic issues such as Restrictions on global customer bases, intensifying corporate espionage and opportunities in third-country markets.
AI competition also involves other geopolitical swing-state players like the United Kingdom (UK), Canada, United Arab Emirates (UAE), France, Singapore, India, Russia, South Korea, and Israel.
These nations, particularly the so-called “middle powers” leverage strong AI capabilities to maintain economic competitiveness and geopolitical influence in a world increasingly dominated by the U.S. and China’s rivalry.
The EU is focusing on establishing technological sovereignty, particularly in AI systems, as part of its broader goal of achieving strategic autonomy in defense.
Through initiatives like the European Defence Fund, the EU aims to foster the development of emerging defense technologies, including AI, by supporting innovations that stem from non-traditional sources.
These technologies play a crucial role in both civilian and military domains, where they contribute to new, cutting-edge defense systems.
The EU is also actively working to assert its position in the global AI race through its European AI Strategy. The EU aims to build its technological sovereignty by promoting leadership in AI and ensuring that its AI development is both human-centric and trustworthy.
This strategy is being implemented across Europe through increased innovation, development, and efforts to create a unified legal framework for AI, as outlined in the AI Act.
Unlike the U.S. and China, which can leverage large-scale tech companies and state-backed initiatives, the EU has relied on its research capabilities and regulatory power to oversee AI development within a framework of democratic governance and the rule of law.
While individual nations view AI as a tool of geopolitical influence and national security, the EU approaches the technology primarily from an economic, social, and regulatory perspective.
However, in recent years, the EU has begun adopting a more geopolitical stance, with leaders like Thierry Breton and Ursula von der Leyen stressing the need for Europe to master key technologies such as AI, quantum computing, and critical chips to secure its place in the emerging global order.
The rapid advancement of AI is happening at such a pace that its future implications are difficult to predict. However, its influence is already visible across technology, commerce, and geopolitics. As we navigate this inter-AI period, humanity can shape the AI-driven future.
In 2024, elections occurred in major democracies such as India, the U.S., Indonesia, and others, we observed how AI impacts both the strengthening and undermining of democratic processes. AI’s role in warfare will also become clearer as it transforms military strategies, including developing autonomous weapons that may operate without human input.
In the medium term, AI will revolutionise various sectors, particularly in scientific discovery, healthcare, and global industries.
AI has already sped up processes like vaccine development and is poised to accelerate innovation in drug discovery and disease detection. However, this progress also comes with potential dangers, including AI’s application in biological and other forms of advanced weaponry.
Moreover, AI’s rise could intensify geopolitical competition, particularly between the U.S. and China, forcing other nations to align with either power to secure their digital sovereignty.
The scale of AI’s impact will be felt throughout society, raising concerns about job displacement as automation takes over a significant percentage of labor tasks.
While job losses are expected, history has shown that technological revolutions often lead to the creation of new industries and opportunities that ultimately improve social welfare.
As we move forward, the key challenge will be shaping this new technological era responsibly, ensuring that human-like intelligence or future artificial general intelligence is integrated into society in ways that promote ethical principles and global collaboration for the common good.
African countries have the potential to play a pivotal role in shaping the global AI landscape, positioning themselves as swing players akin to countries like Norway.
With strategic planning and focused investment, African nations can leverage AI to drive economic growth, social development, and innovation while influencing international AI standards and practices.
This requires a multifaceted approach, drawing lessons from nations that have successfully integrated AI into their economies. This includes African governments can craft comprehensive national AI strategies that prioritise innovation, funding, and collaboration with private enterprises, universities, and research institutions.
Talent development is another cornerstone of success for African nations. By investing in education and training programs across all levels, Africa can nurture a skilled workforce capable of driving AI innovation.
Africa must also prioritise data infrastructure and governance to ensure the ethical and effective use of AI. Encouraging data sharing between public and private entities, while implementing robust data privacy and security laws, can foster trust and innovation.
Open data initiatives, modeled on those of countries like Estonia and Denmark, can further accelerate research and application in various sectors. Coupled with strong ethical frameworks and efforts to mitigate algorithmic bias, these measures can position Africa as a leader in responsible AI development.
Finally, focusing on specific applications tailored to Africa’s unique challenges and opportunities can maximise the impact of AI in the region.