As Cape Town's water crisis increases in severity, the day the taps will run dry continues to loom closer. While this is disastrous news for residents of the city, it has far-reaching consequences for the entire country. Not only does the water crisis open the possibility of further downgrades from ratings agencies, but economic strategists have pointed out that a 1% reduction in the Western Cape GDP equates to a 0.13% reduction in the national GDP. So the long-term impact of the crisis will be felt by all South Africans.

The water levels at dams supplying Cape Town continue to fall rapidly, and with Day Zero now projected to occur in May, the City of Cape Town has now announced a policy of water pricing based on the principle of ‘the more you use, the more you pay'.

Threats of restrictions or of increased costs, however, will only go so far – what can really make a difference is to ensure the accurate monitoring of individual household consumption. Fortunately, says Haroon Suliman, Senior Business Solutions Manager at SAS, it is possible for the Western Cape government to make use of advanced data analytics to uncover patterns and anomalies in water usage and loss.

"Up until now, rates have been determined by type of usage – residential or commercial – and area. The new pay-for-use principle is an attempt to change this, but it will only be truly effective if government is able to accurately monitor individual household consumption.

"After all, in the same way that municipalities lose electricity revenue through illegal connections, millions of litres of water bypass the system every day through fraudulent meter connections, which could have been identified by analytics."

For example, a household may use an average of 300 litres of water a day, according to government data. If this household switches to a prepaid water system in order to save costs, the government stops monitoring its usage, because it is paying for the water in advance. However, adds Suliman, who is to say this household isn't illegally using more water than it is paying for, via fraudulent means?

"By using analytics to compare prepaid and post-paid usage patterns in such households, the municipality will easily be able to detect anomalies in a particular household's behaviour. Moreover, advanced analytics solutions are able to run these models and calculations continuously and automatically, and can thus alert the municipality to any problems in real-time.

"Furthermore, by using analytics to identify responsible users, government could potentially offer them some form of reward and this would increase the incentive to save water. Such an approach might further encourage users to install sustainable systems such as grey water collection vessels for garden use, which would save them even more money and take more pressure off supply."

He points out that by utilising advanced analytics, municipalities can better understand usage patterns and take action where required. An unusual spike in usage may mean excessive water usage by an individual, but it could also mean an underground leak of which neither they nor the individual were aware.

"Advanced analytics is equally effective at assisting municipalities to understand where they are losing water through technical faults, such as leaking or burst pipes and contaminated water sources. Technical losses can be dealt with at a macro level, through the analytical monitoring of water sources, treatment plants and distribution networks."

Without reliable and accurate data, continues Suliman, it is impossible for government to determine what percentage of water losses are due to technical problems or non-technical ones. Advanced analytics can give government a consolidated view of usage versus supply and demand, which will allow it to better manage its resources and better incentivise consumers to use water responsibly.

"Most importantly, using analytics to not only curb excessive usage by citizens, but also to help identify structural failures leading to the loss of water should provide the municipality with additional time – something that is key if suggestions relating to building new reservoirs, finding additional water sources or implementing desalination plants are to come to fruition before Day Zero arrives," he concludes.