'Electricity demand to quadruple by 2040'
'Electricity demand to quadruple by 2040'
A report Brighter Africa: the growth potential of the sub-Saharan electricity sector, released by global management consulting firm McKinsey & Company, investigates how inadequacy of electricity supply affects Africa-based industries and manufacturing sectors, including ICT, and ultimately GDP growth in many countries.
The report, which comes from the company's Electric Power and Natural Gas practice, highlights how the region could meet a demand for electricity that is expected to quadruple in the next 25 years.
The report offers a managerial perspective on prominent topics in the sector across Africa, including electrification, Grand Inga, job creation, regionalisation, and the role of coal imports, natural gas and renewable energies.
It also provides real-world examples from McKinsey aimed at helping governments, private sector investors and multilaterals navigate the sector's development.
Adam Kendall, partner at McKinsey & Company, says the company chose to analyse electricity in an African context because this geography and sector combines immense social impact with attractive investment opportunities.
"Interest in the topic is growing due to governments' increased openness to private sector participation, large gas discoveries in East Africa, and initiatives such as the United Nation's Sustainable Energy For All and the United States' Power Africa," he says.
Kendall says the fact that sub-Saharan Africa's residential and industrial sectors suffer electricity shortages means that countries struggle to sustain GDP growth, adding that inadequate electricity supply slows GDP growth by one to three percentage points annually, leaving 600 million Africans without power.
"In spite of this, we expect electricity demand to quadruple by 2040, creating a nearly 1,600 terawatt-hour opportunity," he adds. "Instead of just forecasting an uncertain future, our analysis attempts to outline and assess the impact of a few extreme development pathways that could meet this demand.
"For example, national self-reliance will require more than $830-billion in investment, however, greater focus on renewable energy, such as solar and wind, would cost $153-billion more but save 21 percent in CO2 emissions."
"The stakes are enormous," he adds. "Indeed, fulfilling the economic and social promise of the region, and Africa in general, depends on the ability of government and investors to develop the continent's huge electricity capacity. This report, which rests on McKinsey's electric power experience across Africa and in developing countries, serves to help governments, the private sector, and multilaterals navigate the sector's development over the next 25 years."