Nathan-Ross Adams, Founder and MD, ITLawCo. (Image: ITLawCo)

The United States has fired the most significant barrage yet in the global contest for technological supremacy. 

Under a sweeping Interim Final Rule issued by the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), the US has introduced unprecedented export controls on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and advanced computing technologies. 

These restrictions are aimed squarely at countries like China, limiting their access to cutting-edge tools critical to AI development.

While these measures may reshape the global AI landscape, they also come with profound implications for emerging markets like Africa. 

As the world splits into technological tiers, African nations must chart a path that ensures they remain participants—not spectators—in this new era of AI-driven geopolitics.

The scope of the new US rule

The AI Diffusion Framework introduced by the BIS is a bold regulatory gambit, dividing countries into three tiers based on their access to advanced AI technology:

• Tier 1: The US and 18 key allies, with privileged access to advanced computing resources.
• Tier 2: Countries, including most African nations, with limited access governed by licensing and quotas.
• Tier 3: Nations under arms embargoes, such as China and Russia, effectively barred from accessing cutting-edge AI tools.

The rule targets AI model weights—critical parameters that dictate how AI models process information—and advanced computing integrated circuits (ICs). 

By controlling these resources, the US seeks to prevent adversarial nations from developing frontier AI models capable of transforming everything from military capabilities to economic influence.

Geopolitical stakes

The US government believes the rapid advancement of AI has made access to computational power a decisive factor in determining global dominance. These restrictions aim to preserve US technological leadership and prevent China from leveraging AI to challenge American hegemony.

However, critics argue that the regulations could undermine US competitiveness if AI’s transformative impact on the economy takes longer to materialise. 

Moreover, the rule has sparked accusations of regulatory capture, as they disproportionately benefit US hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google at the expense of global competitors.

Africa’s position in the AI race

For Africa, predominantly categorised under Tier 2, the stakes are high. While the continent has made strides in AI research and innovation, the new rule threatens to widen the technology gap between Africa and Tier 1 countries. 

Yet, within this challenge lies an opportunity for African nations to rethink their approach to technology development and self-reliance.

1. Strengthening regional alliances: To amplify their voice on the global stage, African nations must consolidate their efforts through bodies like the African Union (AU). Regional collaboration can facilitate knowledge-sharing, pool resources for AI infrastructure, and create a unified negotiating position when engaging with global powers.
2. Investing in local AI capabilities: Reducing dependency on imported technology is crucial. By establishing AI research hubs, fostering university-industry partnerships, and incentivising local innovation, Africa can build homegrown expertise. Success stories like Rwanda’s emerging AI ecosystem highlight the continent’s potential to lead in key areas such as healthcare and agriculture.
3. Exploring alternative partnerships: While the US remains a dominant player in AI, African nations should diversify their alliances. Countries like India, Brazil, and the Middle East, which face similar regulatory challenges, could serve as strategic partners. These relationships can provide access to technologies under more flexible terms.
4. Building resilient supply chains: The US regulations underscore the importance of robust supply chains. Africa should invest in critical infrastructure, such as data centres and renewable energy, to support local AI development. For example, Kenya’s advancements in renewable energy could serve as a model for powering AI operations sustainably.
5. Crafting proactive public policy and law: Developing forward-looking policy and law on data privacy, cybersecurity, and ethical AI will be essential to attract investment and foster innovation. Aligning these frameworks with global standards while addressing local needs can position Africa as a credible player in the global AI ecosystem.

Implications for the global AI landscape

The AI Diffusion Framework is emblematic of a new technology cold war that prioritises national security over global collaboration. While the US seeks to prevent adversaries from leveraging AI, the rule also risks alienating allies and stifling innovation in Tier 2 countries.

For Africa, these restrictions highlight the urgency of developing self-reliant technological ecosystems. The continent’s response will shape its ability to harness AI for critical challenges such as food security, healthcare, and climate resilience.